What assumption could undo the whole case?
The Sceptic looks for the assumption on which the case depends. This role does not attack the book or demand certainty. It asks what might be wrong, what evidence is missing and how the important doubt could be tested fairly.
Use the Board Papers and the claims made for the book. Keep the first four reports closed until the Sceptic report is complete.
Stonecurrent Press does not receive or store your manuscript, notes, answers, reports or result. Everything stays with you unless you choose to share it.
1 State the case being tested
Complete five statements:
- The book works because…
- The intended reader will care because…
- The book is distinct because…
- It can be placed and recommended because…
- It can reach its reader because…
2 Separate evidence from belief
For each statement, identify what is known, what is inferred and what is assumed. Then identify the assumption doing the most work: the one that would weaken several other claims if it proved false.
3 Ask what if
Consider five plausible possibilities:
- the intended reader does not care enough;
- the book does not deliver the promise being made;
- its category or comparisons create the wrong expectation;
- the chosen route never reaches the reader; or
- the author cannot sustain the proposed activity.
The purpose is to expose a dependency, not imagine catastrophe.
4 Give the assumption a fair test
Record:
- the assumption being tested;
- the evidence that would support it;
- the evidence that would weaken it;
- the smallest fair test; and
- the result that would make you reconsider.
If every possible result counts as confirmation, the test proves nothing.
5 Consider the cost of being wrong
For each important reader, editorial, placement or discovery assumption, consider the likely consequence if it is wrong, whether the decision is reversible and what simple safeguard is available.
6 Complete the Sceptic report
Record:
- the assumption that could undo the case;
- why it matters;
- the evidence supporting it;
- the evidence against it or still missing;
- a fair test;
- one priority action; and
- a provisional green, amber or red signal.
Only after completing the report should you open the first four reports. Identify the doubt they already answer and the doubt none of them resolves.
Next: The Chair asks: What does the evidence say the manuscript needs next?
Download the Sceptic worksheet (PDF)
A genuine free resource from Stonecurrent Press.
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